This book summarizes many years of research on statistical short-range precipitation forecasting in Central Asia. Precipitation forecasts are essential for planning agricultural and construction activities, preparing hydrological forecasts, forecasting avalanche hazards, and many other purposes. This is of particular importance for Central Asia, where precipitation varies greatly from one area to another. As is well known, precipitation forecasting is one of the most complex problems in meteorology, and the longer the forecast lead time, the more difficult the task becomes. The difficulties encountered when applying existing precipitation forecasting methods to Central Asia arise from the fact that the region is located deep within a vast continent and possesses highly complex topography. This necessitates additional research both on the forecasting target itself and on the initial information used for prediction. Therefore, the studies presented in this book are of exceptional importance from both scientific and practical perspectives. Chapter 1 presents the results of a statistical analysis of precipitation fields based on machine classification of precipitation during the cold half of the year, as well as a regionalization of Central Asia. The results demonstrate that precipitation is distributed very unevenly throughout the region. Consequently, the use of areally averaged precipitation over arbitrary regions as a forecasting variable is unacceptable. Likewise, regionalization based solely on mean values is unreasonable because, in mountainous areas, stations located relatively close to one another but at different elevations may exhibit substantial differences in average precipitation. Therefore, the delineation of regions with homogeneous precipitation characteristics represents a significant contribution to the solution of weather forecasting problems. Chapter 2 is devoted to identifying the characteristics of precipitation as a forecasting target. It examines the informational value of certain forecasting factors for short-range precipitation prediction and reveals the relationships between precipitation and the principal parameters describing the state of atmospheric circulation. Chapter 3 describes specific forecasting methods that have already been applied in the operational practice of short-range precipitation forecasting in Central Asia. These methods include: physical-statistical precipitation forecasting; statistical forecasting of the probability of precipitation over a three-day period; five-day forecasting of total precipitation based on an integrated weather-dynamic-statistical approach; categorical forecasting of precipitation in the foothill and mountainous regions of Central Asia during incursions of northwestern and western airflows; and precipitation forecasting using discriminant functions. Research on statistical precipitation forecasting in Central Asia is highly diverse. The methods employed include discriminant functions, regression equations, weather-pattern analogue techniques, coefficients derived from expansions in natural orthogonal functions, and many others. In fact, they encompass virtually all statistical forecasting methods and techniques developed up to the present time. Nevertheless, the development of statistical precipitation forecasting methods cannot be regarded as complete. The primary task now appears to be the full automation of the forecasting schemes that have been developed, namely their integration with computer-based systems for information collection, control, and analysis, together with the presentation of forecast results in a form convenient for users.
| collect time | 2025/09/30 - 2025/09/30 |
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| collect place | Soviet Union |
| data size | 32.8 MiB |
| data format | PDF format |
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Author (Editorial Board): 丨.Р. Estelle (丨.Р.Эстерле)Р.М. Tesnevskaya (R.М.Тшесневская)Л.И. Imas (.И.Имас)Э.Н. Milohova (.Н.Милохова)А.А. Mullyukov (А.А.Мулюков) Published by: С р е д н е ази а т с к и й р е г и о н а л ь ный н а у ч н о и с л е д ова т е л ь с к и й г и д р оме т е т е о р о л о г и ч е с к и й и н с т и т у т у т Published: Moscow Publication year: 1979 Pages: 78 pages Language: Russian ISSN: 0130-4887 Classification No.: У п К 551.509.314+324.2 Collection barcode: XJLAS RU 70008792
This book is the collection of the Documentation and Information Center of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, China Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the Center). The center has stored the book electronically and has been recognized by OCR. The data processing process is in accordance with the national standard "GB/T 31219.2-2014 Specifications for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources", and fully complies with the "Collection of Papers of the Bugayev Central Asian Regional Hydrometeorological Science Institute, Series 73: The data information in "Statistical Forecast of Precipitation in Central Asia" has not been changed or deleted.
The collected "Collection of Papers of the Bugayev Central Asian Regional Hydrometeorological Science Institute Series 73: Statistical Prediction of Precipitation in Central Asia" was electronically processed and processed. In accordance with the national standard "GB/T 31219.2-2014 Library Collection Resources Digital Processing Specifications", the data information of "Collection of the Bugayev Central Asian Regional Hydrometeorological Science Institute Series 73: Statistical Prediction of Precipitation in Central Asia" was not changed and deleted, and the data quality was reliable.
| # | number | name | type |
| 1 | PT2406 | Other |
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Atmospheric circulation parameters Short-term precipitation forecast
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