本书是对中亚地区短期降水量统计预报多年研究的总结。降水量预报对于规划农业和建设工作、编制水文预报、雪崩危险性预报等是必需的。这对于降水量差异极大的中亚地区尤为重要。\n众所周知，降水预报属于气象学中最复杂的任务之一，其预测提前期越长，解决难度越大。将现有降水预报方法应用于中亚地区所遇到的困难在于，该区域位于广阔大陆的内陆且地形极为复杂。这要求对预报对象本身以及用于预报的初始信息进行额外研究。因此，本书所呈现的研究无论在科学还是实践方面都具有极其重要的意义。\n第一章阐述了基于冷半年降水机器分类的降水场统计分析结果及中亚地区区划。从给出的结果可以看出，该区域降水分布非常不均匀。因此，使用任意区域面积平均降水量作为预报量是不可接受的。仅基于平均值进行区域划分也是不合理的，因为在山区，彼此相对靠近但位于不同高度的站点，其平均值存在显著差异。因此，划分出降水特征均一的区域，对于解决天气预报问题是一项实质性贡献。\n第二章致力于揭示作为预报对象的降水特征。探讨了某些预报因子对于短期降水预报的信息量问题，并揭示了降水与大气环流状态主要参数之间的联系。\n第三章描述了已在中亚地区短期降水预报实际业务中得到应用的具体方法。这些方法包括：降水物理统计预报、三日降水概率统计预报、基于综合天气-流体动力学-统计方法的五日降水总量预报、针对西北和西方气流入侵时中亚山前及山区降水的分类预报，以及利用判别函数进行的降水预报。\n中亚地区降水统计预报的研究是相当多样化的。用于降水预报的方法包括判别函数、回归方程、天气型相似法、自然正交函数展开系数等，实际上涵盖了迄今为止开发的所有统计预报方法和技巧。\n然而，降水统计预报方法的研发工作不能视为已经完成。首要任务看来应该是实现所开发方案的完全自动化，即将其与基于电子计算机的信息收集、控制和分析系统相结合，并以方便用户的形式输出预报结果。
", "ds_source": "作者（编委会）：Г. Р. 埃斯特尔列（Г. Р. Эстерле）Р. М. 采斯涅夫斯卡娅（Р. М. Тшесневская）Л. И. 伊马斯（Л. И. Имас）Э. Н. 米洛霍娃（Э. Н. Милохова）А. А. 穆柳科夫（А. А. Мулюков）\n出版社：Среднеазиатский региональный научно исследовательский гидрометеорологический институт\n出版地：莫斯科\n出版年：1979年\n页数：78页\n语种：俄文\nISSN号：0130-4887\n分类号：УДК 551.509.314+324.2\n馆藏条形码：XJLAS RU 70008792
", "ds_process_way": "本书为中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所文献信息中心（以下简称中心）馆藏文献，中心将本书电子化后存储，已经过OCR识别，数据加工过程依据国家标准《GB/T 31219.2-2014图书馆馆藏资源数字化加工规范》，完全遵照《布加耶夫中亚区域水文气象科学研究所论文集第73辑：中亚地区降水的统计预测》的数据信息，未改动删减。
", "ds_quality": "对收集到的《布加耶夫中亚区域水文气象科学研究所论文集第73辑：中亚地区降水的统计预测》进行电子化加工处理，按照国家标准《GB/T 31219.2-2014图书馆馆藏资源数字化加工规范》要求，未改动删减《布加耶夫中亚区域水文气象科学研究所论文集第73辑：中亚地区降水的统计预测》的数据信息，数据质量可靠。
", "ds_acq_start_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_end_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_place": "苏联", "ds_acq_lon_east": null, "ds_acq_lat_south": null, "ds_acq_lon_west": null, "ds_acq_lat_north": null, "ds_acq_alt_low": null, "ds_acq_alt_high": null, "ds_share_type": "apply-access", "ds_total_size": 34395904, "ds_files_count": 1, "ds_format": "PDF格式", "ds_space_res": "无", "ds_time_res": "无", "ds_coordinate": "无", "ds_projection": "", "ds_thumbnail": "9025fccc-6e90-4ac0-9a48-4ed2159c73d1.png", "ds_thumb_from": 0, "ds_ref_way": "", "paper_ref_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_from_station": null, "organization_id": "a5877b42-96ea-4f13-af7e-246f355413d6", "doi_value": "", "subject_codes": [ "170.1545" ], "quality_level": 1, "publish_time": "2026-09-10 19:49:20", "first_publish_time": null, "last_updated": "2026-09-23 13:38:48", "protected": false, "protected_to": null, "lang": "zh", "cstr": "33110.11.ariddc.02222", "license": null, "extra": null, "files_shape": [ { "name": "202507130003（XJLASRU70008792）双层.pdf", "size": 34395904, "is_dir": false } ], "features": null, "data_level": 0, "i18n": { "en": { "title": "Proceedings of Bugayev Central Asian Regional Hydrometeorological Sciences Institute Series 73: Statistical Prediction of Precipitation in Central Asia", "ds_abstract": "This book summarizes many years of research on statistical short-range precipitation forecasting in Central Asia. Precipitation forecasts are essential for planning agricultural and construction activities, preparing hydrological forecasts, forecasting avalanche hazards, and many other purposes. This is of particular importance for Central Asia, where precipitation varies greatly from one area to another.\r\n\r\nAs is well known, precipitation forecasting is one of the most complex problems in meteorology, and the longer the forecast lead time, the more difficult the task becomes. The difficulties encountered when applying existing precipitation forecasting methods to Central Asia arise from the fact that the region is located deep within a vast continent and possesses highly complex topography. This necessitates additional research both on the forecasting target itself and on the initial information used for prediction. Therefore, the studies presented in this book are of exceptional importance from both scientific and practical perspectives.\r\n\r\nChapter 1 presents the results of a statistical analysis of precipitation fields based on machine classification of precipitation during the cold half of the year, as well as a regionalization of Central Asia. The results demonstrate that precipitation is distributed very unevenly throughout the region. Consequently, the use of areally averaged precipitation over arbitrary regions as a forecasting variable is unacceptable. Likewise, regionalization based solely on mean values is unreasonable because, in mountainous areas, stations located relatively close to one another but at different elevations may exhibit substantial differences in average precipitation. Therefore, the delineation of regions with homogeneous precipitation characteristics represents a significant contribution to the solution of weather forecasting problems.\r\n\r\nChapter 2 is devoted to identifying the characteristics of precipitation as a forecasting target. It examines the informational value of certain forecasting factors for short-range precipitation prediction and reveals the relationships between precipitation and the principal parameters describing the state of atmospheric circulation.\r\n\r\nChapter 3 describes specific forecasting methods that have already been applied in the operational practice of short-range precipitation forecasting in Central Asia. These methods include: physical-statistical precipitation forecasting; statistical forecasting of the probability of precipitation over a three-day period; five-day forecasting of total precipitation based on an integrated weather-dynamic-statistical approach; categorical forecasting of precipitation in the foothill and mountainous regions of Central Asia during incursions of northwestern and western airflows; and precipitation forecasting using discriminant functions.\r\n\r\nResearch on statistical precipitation forecasting in Central Asia is highly diverse. The methods employed include discriminant functions, regression equations, weather-pattern analogue techniques, coefficients derived from expansions in natural orthogonal functions, and many others. In fact, they encompass virtually all statistical forecasting methods and techniques developed up to the present time.\r\n\r\nNevertheless, the development of statistical precipitation forecasting methods cannot be regarded as complete. The primary task now appears to be the full automation of the forecasting schemes that have been developed, namely their integration with computer-based systems for information collection, control, and analysis, together with the presentation of forecast results in a form convenient for users.", "ds_source": "Author (Editorial Board): 丨.Р. Estelle (丨.Р.Эстерле）Р.М. Tesnevskaya (R.М.Тшесневская）Л.И. Imas (.И.Имас）Э.Н. Milohova (.Н.Милохова）А.А. Mullyukov (А.А.Мулюков）\r\nPublished by: С р е д н е ази а т с к и й р е г и о н а л ь ный н а у ч н о и с л е д ова т е л ь с к и й г и д р оме т е т е о р о л о г и ч е с к и й и н с т и т у т у т\r\nPublished: Moscow\r\nPublication year: 1979\r\nPages: 78 pages\r\nLanguage: Russian\r\nISSN: 0130-4887\r\nClassification No.: У п К 551.509.314+324.2\r\nCollection barcode: XJLAS RU 70008792", "ds_process_way": "This book is the collection of the Documentation and Information Center of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, China Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the Center). The center has stored the book electronically and has been recognized by OCR. The data processing process is in accordance with the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Specifications for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources\", and fully complies with the \"Collection of Papers of the Bugayev Central Asian Regional Hydrometeorological Science Institute, Series 73: The data information in \"Statistical Forecast of Precipitation in Central Asia\" has not been changed or deleted.", "ds_quality": "The collected \"Collection of Papers of the Bugayev Central Asian Regional Hydrometeorological Science Institute Series 73: Statistical Prediction of Precipitation in Central Asia\" was electronically processed and processed. In accordance with the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Library Collection Resources Digital Processing Specifications\", the data information of \"Collection of the Bugayev Central Asian Regional Hydrometeorological Science Institute Series 73: Statistical Prediction of Precipitation in Central Asia\" was not changed and deleted, and the data quality was reliable.", "ds_acq_place": "Soviet Union", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_ref_way": "", "ds_format": "PDF format", "ds_projection": "", "ds_space_res": "", "ds_time_res": "" } }, "license_type": null, "doi_reg_from": "reg_local", "cstr_reg_from": "reg_local", "doi_not_reg_reason": null, "cstr_not_reg_reason": null, "is_paper_in_submitting": false, "ds_topic_tags": [ "大气环流参数", "短时降水预报" ], "ds_subject_tags": [ "应用气象学" ], "ds_class_tags": [], "ds_locus_tags": [ "苏联" ], "ds_time_tags": [ 1979 ], "ds_contributors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_meta_authors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_managers": [ "文献信息中心" ], "category": "图书" }