<p>This monograph studies the current status and future change trends of glaciers in the Balkhash Lake Basin, and evaluates their impact on regional water resource dynamics. The main contents include: Contemporary climate change assessment; Glacier dynamics analysis (including glacier degradation in Alatao Mountains in Outer Ili, South Junggar Mountains and other areas); Comparison of glacier mass balance and long-term observations of the Turviksu glacier (1958 and 1998 data); Prediction of changes in glacier resources (to 2000 and in future decades); Potential impact of glacier degradation on water security. introduction For Central Asian countries, there are some large-scale issues with special priority. They are water resources and global warming issues. Predictive assessments of climate change and its possible consequences for the environment, population and economy are so detrimental that assessing current and projected climate change issues has become one of the top priorities today. However, there is another, more real problem, the solution of which will affect the well-being of the vast majority of our planet's population and the possibility of sustainable development of national economies-the growing problem of water scarcity. Over the past few decades, water security has been one of the major issues in the sustainable development systems of most countries around the world. In the early 1950s, the population and national economy had relatively good water supplies,[131] but deteriorated rapidly in the following decades. As early as the 1960s and 1970s, research within the framework of global projects such as the International Geophysical Year (IGY) and the International Hydrological Decade (IHD) found unfavorable trends in the development of the water sector on almost all continents and changes in the possibility of supplying water to populations and economic enterprises. Since then, water security issues have attracted the attention of scientists and the international community. The past decade has witnessed surveys carried out within the framework of more than 50 projects directly or indirectly aimed at addressing water security issues. The following large projects must be noted: - World Water Assessment Plan (WWAP) - UNESCO; - United Nations Development Program (UNDP) [163]; - Global Environment Facility (GEF) -World Bank, UNDP, United Nations Environment Program; - Joint Monitoring Plan (JMP) -United Nations Children's Fund, World Health Organization; - Global Climate Observing System- UNESCO, World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Environment Program; - Water, Environment and Sanitation Plan (WES) -United Nations Children's Fund;[164]. - Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA) [165] and Global Environmental Monitoring System/Freshwater Quality Plan (GEMS/WATER) [166] -United Nations Environment Program; - "Agricultural Water Resources Development and Management"[167] and "Integrated Water and Soil Management"[168] -Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; - Water Resources Management [169] and Water Supply and Sanitation [170] -World Bank; - International Hydrological Program (IHP) [171]; and Man and Biosphere Program (MAB) [172] - UNESCO; - Water, Sanitation and Health Plan (WSH) [173] -World Health Organization; - Hydrology and Water Resources Program (HWR) [174] -World Meteorological Organization. This focus on water issues is not accidental and is based on the following facts: Today, nearly 80 countries around the world, representing 40% of the world's population, face serious problems related to water resource reduction. Due to population growth, global warming, and changes in total atmospheric precipitation, the situation may deteriorate over the next 50 years.[161] One-fifth of the world's population does not have access to drinking water, and half of the world's population does not have adequate sewage systems. In Africa, Asia, Latin America and Caribbean basin countries, approximately 1 billion people lack access to improved water supply and sanitation systems [102, 103, 161]. In Asia, 700 million people live without adequate water supply, and 180 million people or 60% of the population live without adequate sanitation systems [144, 175]. According to estimates by an international expert group, freshwater shortages will intensify rapidly as population growth and economic development: between 1900 and 1995, water use increased 6-7 times, which is more than twice the population growth rate during the same period. In 1995, the total global water intake was 3750 km³/year, and the water consumption was 2280 km³/year. Taking into account the prospects of economic development, population growth and climate change, according to different estimates, water withdrawal may reach 4600 to 7000 km³ per year. It is also expected that by 2025, water use in developed countries will increase by 15-35% and in developing countries by 200-300%[131]. Achieving the Millennium Goal of providing people with drinking water will become the main expenditure for all countries, ranging from US$10 to US$30 billion per year [145, 161, 163]. Even now, most areas in the temperate latitudes of the northern hemisphere, including Kazakhstan and neighboring Central Asian countries, are showing severe water stress-the share of water use has exceeded 40%, and is increasing further at a rapid rate. According to the same estimates, growing water shortages could trigger "a series of local and regional disasters that could lead to global crises." The vast majority of the territory of Central Asian countries is located in arid zones, characterized by a shortage of drinking water. A typical example of a region suffering from water shortages is the territory of Kazakhstan, one of the most water-scarce countries in Central Asia. The situation is exacerbated by the extremely uneven distribution of surface water resources in space and time-from 70,000 m³/km2 per year in southeastern Republic to 6,500-8,000 m ³/km2 per year in central and northern Kazakhstan. In a dry year that occurs once in about 20 years, water volume may decrease by more than one order of magnitude. Over the past 15-20 years, many scientific papers have been published whose authors have expressed growing concern that continued global warming has led to significant reductions in water resources in arid areas. According to expert estimates, due to global warming, water resources in the Aral Sea Basin may decrease by 20-40% as early as the next few decades. Similar forecast estimates have been obtained for the main river basins of Kazakhstan (Ili River, Ertysh River and Isim River basins)[65, 132]. One of the arguments justifying the above predictions is the indisputable fact that mountain glaciers are undergoing strong degradation: between 1956 and 1990 alone, glacier resources in the mountainous areas of Kazakhstan and neighboring countries have declined by more than a third, and are still declining at a rate of approximately 1% per year [128, 143]. If these trends continue in the future, glaciologists estimate that glaciers in the mountainous areas of Kazakhstan will have almost disappeared by the end of this century [156]. This may indeed make it necessary to revisit the water supply systems of all countries in the region, as glacier water from mountainous areas accounts for 25% of the annual runoff of the region's major rivers and 50% of the runoff during the vegetation growing season. In Central Asian conditions, assessing current and predicted changes in glaciers is important for two reasons. First, glaciers are a clear indicator of nature's response to climate change-warming rates of less than 1.0°C per century are enough to reduce the area of glaciers in mountainous areas of southeastern Kazakhstan by more than a third. It is also important to assess how current glacier degradation will affect river runoff. Under Central Asian conditions, if it is considered that water resources in major rivers in Central Asia and Kazakhstan, including the Amu Darya, Syr Darya, Isim River and Tobor River, may decrease by 20-40% in the next few decades due to global warming, this is one of the top priority issues. This situation prompted continued research under this project. The main purpose of the project is stated as follows: to assess current and predicted changes in glaciers in the foreseeable future and their potential impact on water resources. Among the main tasks of the project, the most important is to assess current and predicted changes in ice resources in the foreseeable future and their possible impact on water resources (their contribution to river runoff formation). From a scientific perspective, the importance of the surveys to be conducted within the framework of this project is that they provide the opportunity to assess current and predicted trends in glacier resources and their possible impact on river runoff and water resources in the region. From a socio-economic perspective, the practical significance of the survey within the framework of the project lies in the possibility of using the survey results to correct practical actions in water resources management. Taking into account the above-mentioned priorities and tasks for the research carried out under the project, this report must not only include an assessment of the current and predicted dynamics of glaciers, but must also consider in detail current and predicted climate change and major water issues in the region. (This content is AI translation and the translation accuracy is not guaranteed. Please refer to the original text for details) </p>