In recent years, the pace and scale of development in the mountainous regions of the Soviet Union have increased dramatically. This growth has been driven by the rapid expansion of the energy and mining industries, forestry and agriculture, the construction of new roads and communication routes, the establishment of sports and health resorts, and the implementation of extensive measures for debris-flow protection and forest-soil improvement. As the intensive utilization of high-mountain regions has increased, so too has scientific interest in glaciers, which are dominant elements of the natural environment and vast reservoirs of freshwater. At the same time, growing attention has been directed toward natural processes of a hazardous character, including debris flows, avalanches, rapid glacier movements, and perennial and seasonal freezing and thawing of soils. Underestimating the dangers posed by such processes inevitably results in substantial economic losses and often leads to casualties. Sufficient information has now been accumulated on the distribution and condition of mountain glaciers to permit broad analyses and calculations in glaciology, climatology, hydrology, and geography as a whole. This circumstance determines the practical relevance of the present work. The book consists of three parts. The first part is devoted to the calculation of statistical parameters of glacierization. It analyzes the patterns of glacier distribution, including their distribution by altitude and area, and discusses methods for calculating the long-term average firn line as well as estimating water reserves stored in glaciers. The regularities of glacierization revealed by these studies can be used to obtain and refine data for regions where glacier studies remain insufficient, relying only on minimal sources of information such as medium- and small-scale maps. The second part presents methods for calculating the principal parameters of glacier condition and glacier runoff. It proposes techniques for measuring and estimating solid precipitation in glacierized zones and summarizes long-term observational data on the condition and distribution of mountain precipitation and snow cover. On the basis of many years of observations, relationships are established between the onset and end of snow and ice melt and accumulated positive temperatures, as well as between these temperatures and the dates of formation and disappearance of stable snow cover on glaciers. Statistical methods for calculating glacier mass balance are discussed, and procedures for calculating glacier-fed river runoff are presented. The third part of the book is devoted to the organization of background forecasting of glacial debris flows through the automated integrated interpretation of hydrometeorological and other data characterizing debris-flow hazard conditions by means of electronic computers. The results are presented in the form of temporal curves showing debris-flow hazard indices for the service area. The advantages of the proposed method include the use of standard hydrometeorological information, operational efficiency, ease of implementation, and the objectivity and high accuracy of the results obtained. An example is presented of the development and application of a background forecasting method for glacial debris flows in a specific mountainous region, the Trans-Ili Alatau, one of the most debris-flow-prone regions of the former Soviet Union. The reliability of distinguishing between debris-flow and non-debris-flow situations is approximately 90%. The principal tool for interpreting data characterizing debris-flow hazards is a topological pattern-recognition method implemented in the software package known as “Search.” Operation of the program requires a set of debris-flow forecasting parameters together with reference descriptions of reliably identified debris-flow and non-debris-flow situations based on these parameters. The “Search” program also makes it possible to simultaneously evaluate the quality of the selected parameters and reference standards. Furthermore, as operational experience accumulates or specialized scientific investigations are conducted, the combinations of parameters and standards used for forecasting may be expanded. The development of a system of methods for calculating the principal indicators characterizing the distribution and condition of mountain glaciers on the basis of standard information became possible through the synthesis of completed materials from the International Hydrological Decade (IHD) program and the results of integrated investigations of heat, ice, and water balances in representative basins. The first part of the book and Chapter 4 of the second part were prepared jointly by the authors, while the remaining chapters of the second part were written by G. A. Tokmagambetov. The authors of the chapters comprising the third part are Yu. V. Khomenyuk, P. A. Plekhanov, G. A. Tokmagambetov, and A. B. Maksimov. Contributions to individual chapters were also made by P. A. Sudakov (Part II, Chapters 1 and 2), I. S. Sosedov, P. A. Plekhanov, and V. A. Zinkova (Part II, Chapter 5). The development of the background forecasting method for glacial debris flows was carried out under a creative cooperation agreement between the All-Union Scientific Research Institute of Geophysical Prospecting Methods of the USSR Ministry of Geology and the Institute of Geography of the Academy of Sciences of the Kazakh SSR. The creation of this new forecasting method began with a proposal by Yu. V. Khomenyuk to use the “Search” program, which had been developed under his direction, for debris-flow prediction. Subsequently, the background forecasting method for glacial debris flows was jointly developed by him and P. A. Plekhanov. The work was carried out under the leadership and with the participation of G. A. Tokmagambetov. The mathematical support for the method was developed by Yu. V. Khomenyuk and A. B. Maksimov.
| collect time | 2025/09/30 - 2025/09/30 |
|---|---|
| collect place | Soviet Union |
| data size | 59.7 MiB |
| data format | PDF format |
| Coordinate system |
Author (Editorial Board): 丨.А. Tokmaganbetov (丨.А.Токмагамбетов)Н.В. Yelasov (Un.В.Ерасов) Published by: А зда тельс тво «Наук а» К а з а в Р с к ой С С С Published: Almaty Publication year: 1985 Pages: 158 pages Language: Russian Classification No.: У п К 556.124.43 Collection barcode: XJLAS RU 70020894
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The collected "Simulation and Prediction of the Distribution and Dynamics of Mountain Glacier" was electronically processed. In accordance with the requirements of the national standard "GB/T 31219.2-2014 Code for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources", the "Distribution and Dynamics of Mountain Glacier" was unchanged and deleted. The data information of "Simulation and Prediction of Mountain Glacier" is of reliable quality.
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| 1 | PT2406 | Other |
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Prediction of ice avalanche and debris flow Glacier mass balance
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