近年来，苏联山区开发的速度和规模急剧增长，这是由于能源和采矿工业、林业和农业的快速发展，新道路和通信线路的建设，体育保健综合体的兴建，以及泥石流防护和森林土壤改良广泛措施的开展。随着高山地区的集约利用，人们对冰川——这一自然界的优势要素和巨大的淡水储藏库——的研究兴趣日益增加，同时也对具有自然灾害性质的自然过程研究更为关注：泥石流、雪崩、冰川的快速运动、多年和季节性的土壤冻结与融化等多种表现。对自然灾害性过程的危险性估计不足，必然导致巨大的非生产性耗费，并常常伴随着人员伤亡。迄今为止，已积累了足够的关于山区冰川分布和状况的资料，可供冰川学、气候学、水文学以及整个地理学进行概括和计算。这也决定了本著作的现实意义。\n本书由三部分组成。\n第一部分致力于冰川作用的统计参数计算。其中分析了冰川的分布规律、按高度和面积的分布，探讨了计算多年平均粒雪线以及冰川中水储量估算的方法。所揭示的冰川作用规律可用于根据\n最小信息量——中、小比例尺地图——来获取和修正冰川作用研究薄弱地区所需的数据。\n第二部分提供了冰川状况和冰川径流主要参数的计算，提出了冰川带固体降水量计算和测量方法，概括了山区降水和积雪状况与分布的多年度实际资料，根据多年数据确定了雪冰消融开始和结束与正积温的关系、以及与冰川上稳定积雪形成和消融日期的关系，探讨了冰川物质平衡计算的统计方法，阐述了河流冰川径流的计算方法。\n第三部分书籍致力于通过利用电子计算机自动综合解译各种表征泥石流危险形势的水文气象及其他数据，来组织冰川泥石流的背景预测。\n结果以所服务区域泥石流危险指标历时曲线的形式呈现。\n所提方法的优点在于：利用标准水文气象信息、高效性、实施简便，以及所得结果的客观性和高精度。\n探讨了为具体山区——苏联最危险泥石流地区之一的外伊犁阿拉套山脉——研制和应用冰川泥石流背景预测方法的示例。其中，泥石流与非泥石流形势预测的可靠性约为 90%。\n用于解译表征泥石流危险的数据的主要工具，是在“搜索”程序中实现的拓扑模式识别方法。使用该程序工作需要一套预测泥石流参数集，以及利用这些参数对可靠的泥石流危险和非泥石流危险形势的描述集，这些描述被用作基准。\n“搜索”程序还允许同时分析所选参数和基准的质量，并且随着使用该程序实践经验的积累或专门科学研究的进行，可以扩展用于预测的参数和基准组合。\n基于标准信息，计算表征山区冰川分布与状况主要指标的方法体系的开发，\n之所以成为可能，是得益于对国际水文十年（МГД）已完成计划资料的综合，以及对代表性流域热量、冰和水平衡联合研究的总结。第一部分以及第二部分的第4章由作者们共同撰写，而第二部分的其余章节由 Г.А.托克马甘别托夫撰写。\nЮ.В.霍缅纽克、П.А.普列汉诺夫、Г.А.托克马甘别托夫和А.Б.马克西莫夫是本书第三部分各章的作者。在个别章节的撰写中，有 П.А.苏达科夫（第二部分，第1和2章）、И.С.索谢多夫、П.А.普列汉诺夫和 В.А.津科娃（第二部分，第5章）参与。冰川泥石流背景预测方法的研制是根据苏联地质部全苏地球物理勘探方法科学研究所与哈萨克苏维埃社会主义共和国科学院地理研究所之间的创造性合作协议进行的。\n这项新方法的创建始于 Ю.В.霍缅纽克的提议，即利用在其指导下开发的“搜索”程序进行泥石流预测。随后，冰川泥石流背景预测方法由他本人与 П.А.普列汉诺夫共同研制。该项工作是在 Г.А.托克马甘别托夫的领导和参与下完成的。该方法的数学支持由 Ю.В.霍缅纽克和 А.Б.马克西莫夫开发
", "ds_source": "作者（编委会）：Г. А. 托克马甘别托夫（Г. А. Токмагамбетов）Н. В. 叶拉索夫（Н. В. Ерасов）\n出版社：Издательство «Наука» Казахской ССР\n出版地：阿拉木图\n出版年：1985年\n页数：158页\n语种：俄文\n分类号：УДК 556.124.43\n馆藏条形码：XJLAS RU 70020894
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", "ds_acq_start_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_end_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_place": "苏联", "ds_acq_lon_east": null, "ds_acq_lat_south": null, "ds_acq_lon_west": null, "ds_acq_lat_north": null, "ds_acq_alt_low": null, "ds_acq_alt_high": null, "ds_share_type": "apply-access", "ds_total_size": 62639815, "ds_files_count": 1, "ds_format": "PDF格式", "ds_space_res": "无", "ds_time_res": "无", "ds_coordinate": "无", "ds_projection": "", "ds_thumbnail": "7d99a3a7-c8f3-42be-b36a-349a0bd33757.png", "ds_thumb_from": 0, "ds_ref_way": "", "paper_ref_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_from_station": null, "organization_id": "a5877b42-96ea-4f13-af7e-246f355413d6", "doi_value": "", "subject_codes": [ "170.4510" ], "quality_level": 1, "publish_time": "2026-09-11 14:21:55", "first_publish_time": null, "last_updated": "2026-09-23 19:13:37", "protected": false, "protected_to": null, "lang": "zh", "cstr": "33110.11.ariddc.02259", "license": null, "extra": null, "files_shape": [ { "name": "202507260001（XJLASRU70020894）双层.pdf", "size": 62639815, "is_dir": false } ], "features": null, "data_level": 0, "i18n": { "en": { "title": "Simulation and prediction of mountain glacier distribution and dynamics", "ds_abstract": "In recent years, the pace and scale of development in the mountainous regions of the Soviet Union have increased dramatically. This growth has been driven by the rapid expansion of the energy and mining industries, forestry and agriculture, the construction of new roads and communication routes, the establishment of sports and health resorts, and the implementation of extensive measures for debris-flow protection and forest-soil improvement. As the intensive utilization of high-mountain regions has increased, so too has scientific interest in glaciers, which are dominant elements of the natural environment and vast reservoirs of freshwater. At the same time, growing attention has been directed toward natural processes of a hazardous character, including debris flows, avalanches, rapid glacier movements, and perennial and seasonal freezing and thawing of soils. Underestimating the dangers posed by such processes inevitably results in substantial economic losses and often leads to casualties. Sufficient information has now been accumulated on the distribution and condition of mountain glaciers to permit broad analyses and calculations in glaciology, climatology, hydrology, and geography as a whole. This circumstance determines the practical relevance of the present work.\r\n\r\nThe book consists of three parts.\r\n\r\nThe first part is devoted to the calculation of statistical parameters of glacierization. It analyzes the patterns of glacier distribution, including their distribution by altitude and area, and discusses methods for calculating the long-term average firn line as well as estimating water reserves stored in glaciers. The regularities of glacierization revealed by these studies can be used to obtain and refine data for regions where glacier studies remain insufficient, relying only on minimal sources of information such as medium- and small-scale maps.\r\n\r\nThe second part presents methods for calculating the principal parameters of glacier condition and glacier runoff. It proposes techniques for measuring and estimating solid precipitation in glacierized zones and summarizes long-term observational data on the condition and distribution of mountain precipitation and snow cover. On the basis of many years of observations, relationships are established between the onset and end of snow and ice melt and accumulated positive temperatures, as well as between these temperatures and the dates of formation and disappearance of stable snow cover on glaciers. Statistical methods for calculating glacier mass balance are discussed, and procedures for calculating glacier-fed river runoff are presented.\r\n\r\nThe third part of the book is devoted to the organization of background forecasting of glacial debris flows through the automated integrated interpretation of hydrometeorological and other data characterizing debris-flow hazard conditions by means of electronic computers.\r\n\r\nThe results are presented in the form of temporal curves showing debris-flow hazard indices for the service area.\r\n\r\nThe advantages of the proposed method include the use of standard hydrometeorological information, operational efficiency, ease of implementation, and the objectivity and high accuracy of the results obtained.\r\n\r\nAn example is presented of the development and application of a background forecasting method for glacial debris flows in a specific mountainous region, the Trans-Ili Alatau, one of the most debris-flow-prone regions of the former Soviet Union. The reliability of distinguishing between debris-flow and non-debris-flow situations is approximately 90%.\r\n\r\nThe principal tool for interpreting data characterizing debris-flow hazards is a topological pattern-recognition method implemented in the software package known as “Search.” Operation of the program requires a set of debris-flow forecasting parameters together with reference descriptions of reliably identified debris-flow and non-debris-flow situations based on these parameters.\r\n\r\nThe “Search” program also makes it possible to simultaneously evaluate the quality of the selected parameters and reference standards. Furthermore, as operational experience accumulates or specialized scientific investigations are conducted, the combinations of parameters and standards used for forecasting may be expanded.\r\n\r\nThe development of a system of methods for calculating the principal indicators characterizing the distribution and condition of mountain glaciers on the basis of standard information became possible through the synthesis of completed materials from the International Hydrological Decade (IHD) program and the results of integrated investigations of heat, ice, and water balances in representative basins.\r\n\r\nThe first part of the book and Chapter 4 of the second part were prepared jointly by the authors, while the remaining chapters of the second part were written by G. A. Tokmagambetov.\r\n\r\nThe authors of the chapters comprising the third part are Yu. V. Khomenyuk, P. A. Plekhanov, G. A. Tokmagambetov, and A. B. Maksimov. Contributions to individual chapters were also made by P. A. Sudakov (Part II, Chapters 1 and 2), I. S. Sosedov, P. A. Plekhanov, and V. A. Zinkova (Part II, Chapter 5).\r\n\r\nThe development of the background forecasting method for glacial debris flows was carried out under a creative cooperation agreement between the All-Union Scientific Research Institute of Geophysical Prospecting Methods of the USSR Ministry of Geology and the Institute of Geography of the Academy of Sciences of the Kazakh SSR.\r\n\r\nThe creation of this new forecasting method began with a proposal by Yu. V. Khomenyuk to use the “Search” program, which had been developed under his direction, for debris-flow prediction. Subsequently, the background forecasting method for glacial debris flows was jointly developed by him and P. A. Plekhanov. The work was carried out under the leadership and with the participation of G. A. Tokmagambetov. The mathematical support for the method was developed by Yu. V. Khomenyuk and A. B. Maksimov.", "ds_source": "Author (Editorial Board): 丨.А. Tokmaganbetov (丨.А.Токмагамбетов）Н.В. Yelasov (Un.В.Ерасов）\r\nPublished by: А зда тельс тво «Наук а» К а з а в Р с к ой С С С\r\nPublished: Almaty\r\nPublication year: 1985\r\nPages: 158 pages\r\nLanguage: Russian\r\nClassification No.: У п К 556.124.43\r\nCollection barcode: XJLAS RU 70020894", "ds_process_way": "This book is the collection of the Documentation and Information Center of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, China Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the Center). The center has stored the book electronically and has been recognized by OCR. The data processing process is in accordance with the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Specifications for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources\", and fully complies with the data information of \"Simulation and Prediction of the Distribution and Dynamics of Mountain Glacier\" without modification and deletion.", "ds_quality": "The collected \"Simulation and Prediction of the Distribution and Dynamics of Mountain Glacier\" was electronically processed. In accordance with the requirements of the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Code for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources\", the \"Distribution and Dynamics of Mountain Glacier\" was unchanged and deleted. The data information of \"Simulation and Prediction of Mountain Glacier\" is of reliable quality.", "ds_acq_place": "Soviet Union", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_ref_way": "", "ds_format": "PDF format", "ds_projection": "", "ds_space_res": "", "ds_time_res": "" } }, "license_type": null, "doi_reg_from": "reg_local", "cstr_reg_from": "reg_local", "doi_not_reg_reason": null, "cstr_not_reg_reason": null, "is_paper_in_submitting": false, "ds_topic_tags": [ "冰崩泥石流预测", "冰川物质平衡" ], "ds_subject_tags": [ "自然地理学" ], "ds_class_tags": [], "ds_locus_tags": [ "苏联" ], "ds_time_tags": [ 1985 ], "ds_contributors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_meta_authors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_managers": [ "文献信息中心" ], "category": "图书" }