%0 Dataset
%T Background prediction of glacier debris flow occurrence
%J Arid Land Ecology and Resources Science Data Center
%I Arid Land Ecology and Resources Science Data Center(data.dcxjegi.cn)
%U https://data.dcxjegi.cn/portal/metadata/4532846f-c0c2-4d84-818d-aa9847e68fc9
%W NCDC
%R 10.12389/ariddc.02232
%A Documentation Information Center
%K Mathematical modeling;Glacial debris flow
%X Mudflows are among the most dangerous natural hazards, and their destructive impact continues to increase as mountain regions become more intensively developed. Various methods are employed for mudflow control, among which forecasting occupies an important place. However, no truly effective mudflow forecasting methods currently exist. This is particularly true for glacial mudflows, which, in many mountain regions, constitute the dominant type of mudflow and are associated with the greatest destructive potential.The present guide is intended to facilitate background forecasting of glacial mudflows through the automated integrated interpretation of hydrometeorological and other data characterizing mudflow hazard conditions using electronic computers. The results of this interpretation are presented in the form of temporal curves of mudflow hazard indicators for the serviced region.The advantages of the proposed method include the use of standard hydrometeorological information, high operational efficiency, ease of implementation, and the objectivity and high accuracy of the resulting forecasts.This guide contains an example of the development and application of a background forecasting method for glacial mudflows in a specific mountainous region, the Trans-Ili Alatau Range, one of the most mudflow-prone areas of the former Soviet Union. In this case, the reliability of distinguishing between mudflow-hazardous and non-hazardous situations is approximately 90%.The principal tool used for interpreting data characterizing mudflow hazard is a topological pattern-recognition method implemented in the software package known as “Poisk” (“Search”). The use of this program requires a set of forecasting-network parameters and a collection of reliable descriptions of both mudflow-hazardous and non-hazardous situations based on these parameters; these descriptions serve as reference standards.The “Search” program also makes it possible to evaluate simultaneously the quality of the