泥石流是最可怕的自然灾害之一，随着山区开发的加剧，其有害影响日益增长。防治泥石流采用各种方法，其中预测占有重要地位。然而，目前尚无有效的泥石流预测方法。这首先针对的是冰川泥石流，在许多山区，这类泥石流是主要的，具有最大的灾难性。\n本指南旨在通过利用电子计算机自动综合解译各种表征泥石流危险形势的水文气象及其他数据，来组织冰川泥石流的背景预测。上述解译结果以所服务区域泥石流危险指标历时曲线的形式呈现。\n所提方法的优点在于：利用标准水文气象信息、高效性、实施简便，以及所得结果的客观性和高精度。\n本指南包含为具体山区——苏联最危险泥石流地区之一的外伊犁阿拉套山脉——研制和应用冰川泥石流背景预测方法的示例。其中，泥石流与非泥石流形势预测的可靠性约为 90%。\n用于解译表征泥石流危险的数据的主要工具，是在“搜索”程序中实现的拓扑模式识别方法。使用该程序工作需要一套预测网络参数集，以及利用这些参数对可靠的泥石流危险和非泥石流危险形势的描述集，这些描述被用作基准。\n“搜索”程序还允许同时分析所选参数和基准的质量，并且随着使用该程序实践经验的积累或专门科学研究的进行，可以扩展用于预测的参数和基准组合。\n本指南面向苏联国家水文气象委员会地方管理局及其他负责提供泥石流危险预测的机构。所提出的方法可用于所有发生冰川泥石流的地区，且不重复其他先前已知的泥石流预测方案。\n本指南共分 3 章。第一章阐述了冰川泥石流背景预测的方法学基础，指出了冰川泥石流形势的主要特点，并提供了选择泥石流预测参数和基准形势的建议。展示了分析现有数据和所得结果的主要途径。\n第二章提供了在外伊犁阿拉套山脉应用所提出的冰川泥石流背景预测方法的示例。展示了该方法的制定、应用技术、其可能性，以及在实践应用该方法时遇到的实际困难。提供了具体区域的预测方案。\n第三章描述了所提方法的数学支持。该支持的基础是“搜索”模式识别程序，该程序目前适用于BЭСМ-4、M-222、明斯克-32、BЭСМ-6、CM-4型计算机，并正在向EC系列计算机移植。\n冰川泥石流背景预测方法的研制是根据苏联地质部全苏地球物理方法科学研究所与哈萨克苏维埃社会主义共和国科学院地理研究所之间的创造性合作协议进行的。冰川泥石流背景预测方法由Ю.В.霍缅纽克与П.А.普列汉诺夫共同研制。该项工作是在Г.А.托克马甘别托夫的方法指导和参与下完成的。该方法的数学支持由Ю.В.霍缅纽克和А.Б.马克西莫夫开发。\n1982年11月，冰川泥石流背景预测方法的研制成果在阿拉木图市举行的全苏“大陆内部沙漠与半沙漠山地地质生态学”研讨会上以及哈萨克苏维埃社会主义共和国部长会议下属哈萨克泥石流防治总局科学技术委员会会议上进行了报告并获得了批准
", "ds_source": "作者（编委会）：А. П. 戈尔布诺夫（А. П. Горбунов）\n出版社：Издательство «Наука» Казахской ССР\n出版地：阿拉木图\n出版年：1985年\n页数：61页\n语种：俄文\n馆藏条形码：XJLAS RU 70002278
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", "ds_acq_start_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_end_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_place": "苏联", "ds_acq_lon_east": null, "ds_acq_lat_south": null, "ds_acq_lon_west": null, "ds_acq_lat_north": null, "ds_acq_alt_low": null, "ds_acq_alt_high": null, "ds_share_type": "apply-access", "ds_total_size": 23598708, "ds_files_count": 1, "ds_format": "PDF格式", "ds_space_res": "无", "ds_time_res": "无", "ds_coordinate": "无", "ds_projection": "", "ds_thumbnail": "4532846f-c0c2-4d84-818d-aa9847e68fc9.png", "ds_thumb_from": 0, "ds_ref_way": "", "paper_ref_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_from_station": null, "organization_id": "a5877b42-96ea-4f13-af7e-246f355413d6", "doi_value": "", "subject_codes": [ "170.5599" ], "quality_level": 1, "publish_time": "2026-09-11 11:41:09", "first_publish_time": null, "last_updated": "2026-09-23 14:42:32", "protected": false, "protected_to": null, "lang": "zh", "cstr": "33110.11.ariddc.02232", "license": null, "extra": null, "files_shape": [ { "name": "202507170001（XJLASRU70002278）双层.pdf", "size": 23598708, "is_dir": false } ], "features": null, "data_level": 0, "i18n": { "en": { "title": "Background prediction of glacier debris flow occurrence", "ds_abstract": "Mudflows are among the most dangerous natural hazards, and their destructive impact continues to increase as mountain regions become more intensively developed. Various methods are employed for mudflow control, among which forecasting occupies an important place. However, no truly effective mudflow forecasting methods currently exist. This is particularly true for glacial mudflows, which, in many mountain regions, constitute the dominant type of mudflow and are associated with the greatest destructive potential.\r\n\r\nThe present guide is intended to facilitate background forecasting of glacial mudflows through the automated integrated interpretation of hydrometeorological and other data characterizing mudflow hazard conditions using electronic computers. The results of this interpretation are presented in the form of temporal curves of mudflow hazard indicators for the serviced region.\r\n\r\nThe advantages of the proposed method include the use of standard hydrometeorological information, high operational efficiency, ease of implementation, and the objectivity and high accuracy of the resulting forecasts.\r\n\r\nThis guide contains an example of the development and application of a background forecasting method for glacial mudflows in a specific mountainous region, the Trans-Ili Alatau Range, one of the most mudflow-prone areas of the former Soviet Union. In this case, the reliability of distinguishing between mudflow-hazardous and non-hazardous situations is approximately 90%.\r\n\r\nThe principal tool used for interpreting data characterizing mudflow hazard is a topological pattern-recognition method implemented in the software package known as “Poisk” (“Search”). The use of this program requires a set of forecasting-network parameters and a collection of reliable descriptions of both mudflow-hazardous and non-hazardous situations based on these parameters; these descriptions serve as reference standards.\r\n\r\nThe “Search” program also makes it possible to evaluate simultaneously the quality of the selected parameters and the reference standards. Moreover, as operational experience with the program accumulates or as specialized scientific investigations are conducted, the combinations of parameters and standards used in forecasting can be expanded.\r\n\r\nThis guide is intended for regional administrations of the USSR State Committee for Hydrometeorology and other organizations responsible for providing mudflow hazard forecasts. The proposed method can be applied in all regions where glacial mudflows occur and does not duplicate any previously known mudflow forecasting schemes.\r\n\r\nThe guide consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 sets out the methodological foundations of background forecasting for glacial mudflows, identifies the principal characteristics of glacial mudflow situations, and provides recommendations for selecting forecasting parameters and reference situations. It also presents the principal approaches for analyzing available data and interpreting the results obtained.\r\n\r\nChapter 2 provides an example of the application of the proposed background forecasting method in the Trans-Ili Alatau Mountains. It describes the development of the method, the techniques used in its implementation, its capabilities, and the practical difficulties encountered during operational application. A forecasting scheme for a specific region is also presented.\r\n\r\nChapter 3 describes the mathematical support of the proposed method. Its foundation is the “Search” pattern-recognition program, which at the time was compatible with BESM-4, M-222, Minsk-32, BESM-6, and SM-4 computers and was being adapted for the ES series of computers.\r\n\r\nThe development of the background forecasting method for glacial mudflows was carried out within the framework of a cooperative agreement between the All-Union Scientific Research Institute of Geophysical Methods of the USSR Ministry of Geology and the Institute of Geography of the Academy of Sciences of the Kazakh SSR. The method was jointly developed by Yu. V. Khomenyuk and P. A. Plekhanov. The work was conducted under the methodological guidance and with the participation of G. A. Tokmagambetov. The mathematical support for the method was developed by Yu. V. Khomenyuk and A. B. Maksimov.\r\n\r\nIn November 1982, the results of the development of the glacial mudflow background forecasting method were presented and approved at the All-Union Symposium on the Geoecology of Mountainous Deserts and Semi-Deserts of Continental Interiors, held in Alma-Ata, as well as at a meeting of the Scientific and Technical Council of the Kazakhstan Mudflow Protection Administration under the Council of Ministers of the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic.", "ds_source": "Author (Editorial Board): А.П. Gorbunov (А.П.Горбунов）\r\nPublished by: А зда тельс тво «Наук а» К а з а в Р с к ой С С С\r\nPublished: Almaty\r\nPublication year: 1985\r\nPages: 61 pages\r\nLanguage: Russian\r\nCollection barcode: XJLAS RU 70002278", "ds_process_way": "This book is the collection of the Documentation and Information Center of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, China Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the Center). The center has stored the book electronically and has been recognized by OCR. The data processing process is in accordance with the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Specifications for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources\", and fully complies with the data information of \"Background Prediction of Glacier Debris Flow Occurrence\" without modification or deletion.", "ds_quality": "The collected \"Background Prediction of Glacier Debris Flow Occurrence\" was electronically processed. In accordance with the requirements of the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Code for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources\", the \"Background Prediction of Glacier Debris Flow Occurrence\" was not changed and deleted. Data information, data quality is reliable.", "ds_acq_place": "Soviet Union", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_ref_way": "", "ds_format": "PDF format", "ds_projection": "", "ds_space_res": "", "ds_time_res": "" } }, "license_type": null, "doi_reg_from": "reg_local", "cstr_reg_from": "reg_local", "doi_not_reg_reason": null, "cstr_not_reg_reason": null, "is_paper_in_submitting": false, "ds_topic_tags": [ "数学建模", "冰川泥石流" ], "ds_subject_tags": [ "水文学其他学科" ], "ds_class_tags": [], "ds_locus_tags": [ "苏联" ], "ds_time_tags": [ 1985 ], "ds_contributors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_meta_authors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_managers": [ "文献信息中心" ], "category": "图书" }