根据联合国的结论，淡水资源保障是21世纪人类面临的关键问题之一。地球上潜在的淡水可再生资源，据不同估计，每年为3.5万至5万立方千米，其中仅三分之一（1.25万立方千米/年）可用于满足人类需求。与此同时，由于水源污染，潜在的淡水资源份额有随时间减少的趋势，而全球对水的需求却在相反地增长。据确定，在20世纪期间，全球用水量增长了七倍，达到每年4000立方千米，这一增速超过了同期人口增长速度的两倍多。\n据预测，世界人口到2025年将达到83亿，到2050年将超过100-120亿。考虑到当前的趋势，可以推测，在未来的50年里，与水资源短缺或水体污染相关的问题将在全球每个国家不同程度地出现。其中，全球水资源问题的加剧将最大程度地影响世界许多地区和国家的粮食保障和生态安全状况。在联合国主持下制定的《21世纪议程》（里约热内卢，1992年）令人信服地表明，水是人类可持续发展的关键，即那种不破坏其延续所需条件——社会、经济和环境条件，并且能无损耗地自我再生产其基础的发展[1, 2]。\n在10年后举行的联合国可持续发展世界首脑会议（约翰内斯堡，2002年）上，哈萨克斯坦总统努尔苏丹·纳扎尔巴耶夫指出，在过去一段时间里，尽管科技取得了明显进步，人类却依然未能摆脱在整个历史进程中一直困扰其的弊病：贫穷、饥饿、疾病和破坏性战争。他还提醒道，生活在贫困条件下的人口总数超过十亿，超过十亿人无法获得清洁的饮用水。努尔苏丹·纳扎尔巴耶夫认为，必须将防止对环境造成不可逆转的损害置于可持续发展的核心，以便为我们的后代保留必要的生活资源。可持续发展是人类生存的一种形式。在峰会的全体会议上，努尔苏丹·纳扎尔巴耶夫建议所有国家削减1%的军费开支，并将这些资金用于最贫穷国家的发展。\n对全球水资源问题状况的分析表明，仅靠节水手段的战略不可能解决水资源短缺问题。实现平衡用水的另一个积极发展方向是水资源保障——即通过时空重新分配水资源的措施来增加天然水的潜在资源。根据联合国教科文组织专家的数据，截至1990年，全球十分之一的河流的径流模式得到了调节，这使得陆地河流的稳定径流量增加了22%。根据已完成的预测，到2030年左右，全球三分之二的河流径流将在不同程度上受到调节[3-8]。改变水系的自然状态，虽然能提高水资源的可及性并有助于解决许多水利问题，但同时也给广大地区的自然和经济带来了一系列副作用和不良变化，这引起了公众合理的关切。在这方面，世界上许多国家在该领域开展的研究的意义难以估量。\n哈萨克斯坦水资源保障问题的严峻性，源于其可用水资源有限、分布不均、随时间变化显著以及污染程度高。从前景来看，由于来自邻国领土的河川径流量减少，以及气候原因导致的本地径流资源减少，预计共和国水资源保障的形势将更加严峻。同时，预计极端水文现象——灾难性洪水和枯水——的发生频率将会增加。河川径流资源变化的潜在后果对共和国的可持续发展构成了现实威胁。国家正在进行的根本性经济改革，包括水利行业的改革，对解决共和国水资源可持续保障问题提出了特殊要求。\n在哈萨克斯坦共和国政府批准的《至2010年哈萨克斯坦共和国水经济部门及水利政策发展构想》（2002年1月21日第71号决议）中，确定了国家水资源保障领域的总体目标、主要任务和基本方向，包括：\n水资源的合理利用；\n保持和维护健康的生态环境；\n为人民提供优质饮用水；\n水经济部门的国有化管理；\n跨界水源利用领域的国际合作；\n水资源管理的法规基础；\n科学研究、设计和教育领域。\n政府批准上述文件，确定了制定作为水利措施规划基础的《哈萨克斯坦共和国水资源保障总体方案》的必要性和及时性。同样显而易见的是，有必要建立相应的科学基础，以确保该方案及其结论具有足够高的可靠性水平。\n根据已进行的分析，可以突出以下共和国水资源保障和水利用方面的紧迫科学问题：考虑人为和气候引起的变化，开发评估和预测天然水资源、状况及质量的理论基础；开发水资源综合管理的基础，包括在流域功能性完整的水文循环范围内进行国家间分水的问题；建立优化非传统水资源利用的科学基础，考虑将人口、工业以及部分农业（灌溉农业）转向依靠地下水保障的方向；制定旨在减少从天然水源取水、减少污染物排放，以及提高工业和农业用水生产率的节水战略科学基础；开展评估和预测水致自然灾害动态以及自然-经济系统对人为和气候引起的水资源变化响应的基础研究。\n迄今为止，国外和国内研究者的工作已为合理利用自然资源并在其框架内引入主动管理要素奠定了一定的理论基础。这一状况得益于及时将实验改造方向的任务纳入了地理研究领域，该方向在[9-29]的著作中得到了积极发展。\n考虑到对大型自然-经济系统进行物理实验的困难性（或原则上不可能），系统方法在自然地理系统研究中占据了核心地位，尤其是在其水资源保障问题方面，并广泛应用了数学建模。后苏联空间许多研究者的著作都致力于将数学方法用于水利系统的分析、预测和优化的各个方面[30-38]。\n过去几十年来对环境问题的高度关注，推动了水生态研究方向的积极发展，其基础是评估当前及预期的气候和人为引起的水体变化，并阐明这些变化对自然-经济系统及其组成部分状态影响的理论和方法[39-80]。\n总体承认合理利用自然资源（及水资源）理论发展水平较高，但同时也应指出，在确保做出客观管理决策方面，当前管理大型水利系统的方法论和方法基础存在一定不足。这尤其与需要在可持续发展现代思想背景下完善水资源管理的理论方法论基础，并考虑自然-经济系统水资源保障任务的区域性特点有关。\n根据所提出的问题，本专著致力于解决以下任务：\n制定作为自然-经济系统中水资源综合管理“支撑机制”的水资源保障系统概念；\n对咸海和巴尔喀什湖无流跨界流域自然-经济系统的水资源保障稳定性进行回顾性和预测性评估；\n基于在锡尔河三角洲组织水利监测，揭示现代河口水盐状况变化规律；\n为遏制环境退化过程和缓解农村地区严峻的社会经济状况（贫困），制定生态失稳河口水域整治的典型概念模型（以锡尔河为例）；\n基于现场实验和对巴尔喀什湖内陆水文过程的模拟，研究无流水体内水盐交换规律；\n论证将内陆水文过程管理作为补偿人为和气候因素导致流入无流水体河川径流变动的可能性（以巴尔喀什湖为例）；\n基于多目标优化和动态随机建模原则，制定水资源保障系统稳定性评估的方法学手段（以咸海-锡尔河流域为例）。\n本专著的主要和初始资料是作者在过去25年间，在执行国家科技计划与经济合同以及国际计划和项目过程中所获研究成果的总结。
", "ds_source": "作者（编委会）：И.М. 马尔科夫斯基 (И.М. Мальковский)\n出版社：Издательство «Наука»\n出版地：阿拉木图\n出版年：2008年\n页数：204页 \n语种：俄文\n分类号：УДК 556.01+504.4.062.2 (574)
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", "ds_acq_start_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_end_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_place": "苏联", "ds_acq_lon_east": null, "ds_acq_lat_south": null, "ds_acq_lon_west": null, "ds_acq_lat_north": null, "ds_acq_alt_low": null, "ds_acq_alt_high": null, "ds_share_type": "apply-access", "ds_total_size": 104730058, "ds_files_count": 1, "ds_format": "PDF格式", "ds_space_res": "无", "ds_time_res": "无", "ds_coordinate": "无", "ds_projection": "无", "ds_thumbnail": "307dbc58-3227-4597-989d-f87ae1d8801d.png", "ds_thumb_from": 0, "ds_ref_way": "", "paper_ref_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_from_station": null, "organization_id": "a5877b42-96ea-4f13-af7e-246f355413d6", "doi_value": "", "subject_codes": [ "170.55" ], "quality_level": 1, "publish_time": "2026-09-17 10:26:35", "first_publish_time": null, "last_updated": "2026-09-17 10:27:12", "protected": false, "protected_to": null, "lang": "zh", "cstr": "33110.11.ariddc.02403", "license": null, "extra": null, "files_shape": [ { "name": "202508280002（无条码）双层.pdf", "size": 104730058, "is_dir": false } ], "features": null, "data_level": 0, "i18n": { "en": { "title": "Geographical basis for water resources security in Kazakhstan's natural economic system", "ds_abstract": "According to the conclusions of the United Nations, ensuring freshwater resources is one of the key challenges facing humanity in the twenty-first century. Estimates of the Earth's potentially renewable freshwater resources range from 35,000 to 50,000 cubic kilometers per year, of which only one-third (12,500 cubic kilometers per year) can be utilized to satisfy human needs. At the same time, due to water pollution, the share of potentially available freshwater resources tends to decline over time, while global demand for water continues to grow in the opposite direction. It has been established that during the twentieth century global water consumption increased sevenfold, reaching 4,000 cubic kilometers annually, with this growth rate exceeding population growth by more than two times.\r\n\r\nAccording to forecasts, the world's population will reach 8.3 billion by 2025 and exceed 10 to 12 billion by 2050. Given current trends, it can be assumed that within the next fifty years problems related to water scarcity or water pollution will arise, to varying degrees, in every country of the world. The worsening global water crisis will have its greatest impact on food security and ecological safety in many regions and countries. The United Nations Agenda 21 (Rio de Janeiro, 1992) convincingly demonstrated that water is a key factor in sustainable development, that is, development that does not undermine the social, economic, and environmental conditions necessary for its continuation and is capable of reproducing its own foundations without depletion [1, 2].\r\n\r\nAt the United Nations World Summit on Sustainable Development held ten years later in Johannesburg (2002), Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev pointed out that despite significant scientific and technological progress, humanity had still failed to overcome the problems that had accompanied it throughout history: poverty, hunger, disease, and destructive wars. He also reminded participants that more than one billion people lived in poverty and more than one billion lacked access to safe drinking water. Nursultan Nazarbayev argued that preventing irreversible environmental damage must become the core of sustainable development in order to preserve the resources necessary for life for future generations. Sustainable development is a form of human survival. During the summit's plenary session, Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed that all countries reduce military expenditures by one percent and direct these funds toward the development of the world's poorest nations.\r\n\r\nAnalysis of the global water-resource situation shows that a strategy based solely on water conservation measures cannot solve the problem of water scarcity. Another promising direction toward balanced water use is water-resource augmentation, that is, increasing the potential resources of natural waters through their redistribution in space and time. According to UNESCO experts, by 1990 the flow regimes of one-tenth of the world's rivers had already been regulated, resulting in a 22 percent increase in stable river runoff. Forecasts indicate that by around 2030, two-thirds of global river runoff will be regulated to varying degrees [3-8]. Altering the natural state of water systems may increase water availability and help resolve many hydraulic engineering problems, but it also causes numerous side effects and adverse changes in natural and economic conditions across vast territories, thereby triggering justified public concern. Consequently, the significance of research conducted in this field in many countries around the world can hardly be overstated.\r\n\r\nThe severity of Kazakhstan's water-resource challenges stems from limited available water resources, their uneven distribution, substantial temporal variability, and significant pollution levels. Future prospects indicate that the situation may become even more severe due to reductions in river inflows originating from neighboring countries and decreases in local runoff caused by climatic factors. At the same time, the frequency of extreme hydrological events, including catastrophic floods and droughts, is expected to increase. The potential consequences of changes in river runoff constitute a genuine threat to the country's sustainable development. The fundamental economic reforms currently underway, including reforms within the water sector, place special demands on solving the problem of sustainable water-resource provision.\r\n\r\nThe Concept for the Development of the Water Management Sector and Water Policy of the Republic of Kazakhstan through 2010, approved by Government Resolution No. 71 of January 21, 2002, defined the overall goals, primary tasks, and main directions of national water-resource policy, including:\r\n\r\n• Rational use of water resources;\r\n • Preservation and maintenance of a healthy ecological environment;\r\n • Provision of high-quality drinking water to the population;\r\n • State management of the water-management sector;\r\n • International cooperation in the use of transboundary water resources;\r\n • Development of the legal framework for water-resource management;\r\n • Scientific research, design, and education.\r\n\r\nThe approval of this document by the Government confirmed both the necessity and timeliness of preparing the General Scheme for Water Resource Provision of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which serves as the basis for planning water-management measures. It is equally evident that an appropriate scientific foundation must be established to ensure a sufficiently high level of reliability for this scheme and its conclusions.\r\n\r\nBased on the analysis conducted, the following urgent scientific issues in water-resource provision and water use in the Republic can be identified: developing theoretical foundations for the assessment and forecasting of natural water resources, their condition and quality, taking into account anthropogenic and climatic changes; developing principles for integrated water-resource management, including issues of interstate water allocation within the framework of complete hydrological cycles of river basins; establishing scientific foundations for optimizing the use of nontraditional water resources, including the transition of population centers, industry, and part of agriculture (irrigated farming) to groundwater-based supply; developing scientific principles for water-conservation strategies aimed at reducing withdrawals from natural sources, decreasing pollutant discharges, and improving water-use efficiency in industry and agriculture; and conducting fundamental research on the assessment and prediction of water-related natural hazards and the responses of natural-economic systems to anthropogenic and climate-induced changes in water resources.\r\n\r\nTo date, the work of both foreign and domestic researchers has created a certain theoretical basis for the rational use of natural resources and the introduction of active management elements within this framework. This progress was facilitated by the timely inclusion of experimental transformation tasks within geographical research, an area that received substantial development in works cited in [9-29].\r\n\r\nGiven the difficulty, or even impossibility in principle, of conducting physical experiments on large natural-economic systems, the systems approach has come to occupy a central position in studies of natural-geographical systems, particularly in addressing water-resource issues. Mathematical modeling has been widely applied in this field. Numerous researchers throughout the post-Soviet region have devoted their work to the application of mathematical methods in the analysis, forecasting, and optimization of water-management systems [30-38].\r\n\r\nThe heightened attention paid to environmental problems in recent decades has stimulated the active development of hydroecological research. This field is based on evaluating current and anticipated climate-induced and anthropogenic changes in water bodies and on developing theories and methods for understanding the effects of such changes on natural-economic systems and their components [39-80].\r\n\r\nWhile the generally high level of development of theories concerning the rational use of natural resources, including water resources, is widely recognized, it should also be noted that the current methodological foundations for managing large-scale water systems exhibit certain shortcomings in ensuring objective management decisions. This is particularly related to the need to improve the theoretical and methodological basis of water-resource management within the framework of modern concepts of sustainable development, while taking into account the regional characteristics of water-resource challenges in natural-economic systems.\r\n\r\nIn accordance with these issues, the present monograph is devoted to solving the following tasks:\r\n\r\n• Developing the concept of a water-resource provision system as the “support mechanism” for integrated water-resource management in natural-economic systems;\r\n • Conducting retrospective and predictive assessments of the stability of water-resource provision in the endorheic transboundary basins of the Aral Sea and Lake Balkhash;\r\n • Identifying contemporary patterns of water-salinity dynamics in river deltas on the basis of hydrological monitoring conducted in the Syr Darya Delta;\r\n • Developing a typical conceptual model for the rehabilitation of ecologically destabilized deltaic waters in order to curb environmental degradation and alleviate severe socio-economic conditions (poverty) in rural areas, using the Syr Darya as an example;\r\n • Investigating patterns of water-salt exchange in closed water bodies through field experiments and simulation of intrabasin hydrological processes in Lake Balkhash;\r\n • Substantiating the possibility of managing intrabasin hydrological processes as a means of compensating for anthropogenic and climatic changes in river inflows into closed water bodies, using Lake Balkhash as an example;\r\n • Developing methodological tools for assessing the stability of water-resource provision systems based on principles of multi-objective optimization and dynamic stochastic modeling, using the Aral Sea-Syr Darya Basin as an example.\r\n\r\nThe principal source materials for this monograph consist of a synthesis of research results obtained by the authors over the past twenty-five years in the course of implementing national scientific and technological programs, contractual research projects, and international programs and projects.", "ds_source": "Author (Editorial Board):.М. Markovsky (.М.Мальковский)\r\nPublished by: 丨 зда тельство « 丨 аука»\r\nPublished: Almaty\r\nPublication year: 2008\r\nPages: 204 pages \r\nLanguage: Russian\r\nClassification No.: У п к 556.01+504.4.062.2 (574)", "ds_process_way": "This book is the collection of the Documentation and Information Center of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, China Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the Center). The center has stored this book electronically and has been recognized by OCR. The data processing process is in accordance with the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Library Collection Resources Digital Processing Specifications\", fully complying with the data information of \"Geographical Basis for Water Resources Protection in Kazakhstan's Natural Economic System\", without modification or deletion.", "ds_quality": "The collected \"Geographical Basis for Water Resources Security in the Natural Economic System of Kazakhstan\" was electronically processed. In accordance with the requirements of the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Code for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources,\" the data information of \"Geographical Basis for Water Resources Security in the Natural Economic System of Kazakhstan\" was not changed and deleted, and the data quality was reliable.", "ds_acq_place": "Soviet Union", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_ref_way": "", "ds_format": "PDF format", "ds_projection": "no", "ds_space_res": "", "ds_time_res": "" } }, "license_type": null, "doi_reg_from": "reg_local", "cstr_reg_from": "reg_local", "doi_not_reg_reason": null, "cstr_not_reg_reason": null, "is_paper_in_submitting": false, "ds_topic_tags": [ "水资源保障", "跨界流域管理" ], "ds_subject_tags": [ "水文学" ], "ds_class_tags": [], "ds_locus_tags": [ "哈萨克斯坦共和国" ], "ds_time_tags": [ 2008 ], "ds_contributors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_meta_authors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_managers": [ "文献信息中心" ], "category": "图书" }