专著《伊塞克湖及其自然演化趋势》谨此献给地理科学博士、教授阿尔谢尼·弗拉基米罗维奇·施尼特尼科夫——这位以湖泊学与自然过程节律性研究而闻名的地理学家的光辉记忆，他为伊塞克湖的自然研究做出了重大贡献。\n本书是苏联科学院湖泊研究所一组研究人员在 A. V. 施尼特尼科夫指导下，为揭示伊塞克湖及其他高山湖泊现代自然发展的基本趋势而在天山和帕米尔山区开展研究的成果。\n与伊塞克湖水位持续下降相关的问题，近年来引发了关于此现象原因及调控伊塞克湖盆地干涸过程可能性的热烈讨论。湖泊流域的经济开发、休闲旅游业的发展、伊塞克湖盆地的人口增长，决定了研究该地区水资源及其未来变化前景的必要性。\n特别值得关注的是厘清湖泊水位下降总量中自然因素与人为因素的比例关系。对这一比例关系的正确评估在很大程度上决定了湖泊流域水利措施的规划与发展，并最终影响投资效益。因此，查明影响伊塞克湖水量平衡并决定其水位变化模式的主要自然因素，是现代研究最重要的任务，其解决将有助于确定调控伊塞克湖水情的最合理途径。\n目前，解释伊塞克湖水位变化模式现代趋势的假说主要有四种：存在显著的湖泊地下水外流；过去曾注入湖泊的楚河与之分离；流域内河流农业灌溉取水量增加；气候变化的影响。\n所列出的每一种假说本身都能令人满意地解释湖泊负水量平衡的长期存在，该现象在整个本世纪均有观测。那么，什么是湖泊水位变化模式的决定性因素呢？\n迄今为止，由于对天山自然演化规律的认识不足，这个问题仍然悬而未决。关于湖泊流域水分循环特点的研究仍然极其欠缺，这导致无法确定被气流带出伊塞克湖盆地的水汽量，也无法评估湖面及灌溉区蒸发在湖泊水量平衡中的作用。\n关于湖泊地下水外流的现有观点多种多样：从完全否认地下水外流的可能性，到将此项支出视为形成负水量平衡的主要角色。可以有把握地指出，在现阶段的研究中，尚不能明确解决这个问题。目前，根据已进行的水化学研究，可以较为明确地断言，湖泊在博奥姆峡谷地区不存在向楚河的地下径流。\n楚河本身注入湖泊的情况在过去无疑发生过。这由一条穿过伊塞克湖雷巴奇湾向东延伸的深邃水下河谷所证明。由于构造或水动力原因导致的河流与湖泊的\"分离\"，可能只发生过一次。其后果应是湖泊历史上唯一一次显著的水位下降。然而，历史和考古材料表明，在过去的几千年里，相对于现代位置，湖泊水位曾多次发生显著上升和下降。\n至于流域内河流用于灌溉的大量取水，其影响仅在二十世纪下半叶才被认为是显著的，而伊塞克湖的定向下降始于150年前。这种湖泊水位位置的变化，最有可能从气候角度加以解释。\n本书作者发展了 A. V. 施尼特尼科夫关于气候变化在湖泊状态变化中作用的观点，分析了关于伊塞克湖流域自然组成部分现代状况及其随时间变化的实际数据。特别关注了揭示气候要素、流域湿度状况、地下水状态及伊塞克湖水位多年变化中不同长度的周期和总体趋势。\n专著中的重要部分是对湖泊水热平衡要素、流域灌溉农业用水状况及其对湖泊水位变化模式影响规模的研究。\n然而，仅基于短期的仪器观测时期来研究和分析湖泊流域自然条件的发展趋势，而脱离湖泊水位的历史变化、该区域其他水体状况及湿润周期，这在方法论上将是不正确的。\n有鉴于此，作者们高度重视对湖泊流域自然过程动态进行回顾性分析，对比历史考古信息、地貌学、孢粉学、生物地球化学及其他有关伊塞克湖盆地全新世湿润组成要素变化的材料。\n专著中探讨的作为气候变化指示器的天山和帕米尔其他高山湖泊现代状态及随时间变化的特征，有助于揭示山区自然发展的总体趋势。\n总体而言，伊塞克湖的自然演化趋势是在包含中亚山系的广阔区域的自然地理条件动态背景下进行考察的。\n研究是在与列宁格勒国立日丹诺夫大学地理系、爱沙尼亚科学院动物与植物研究所以及吉尔吉斯科学院天山高山自然地理站的紧密科学合作下完成的。\n作者谨对书稿审阅人 I. S. 科普兰-迪克松和 E. V. 马克西莫夫提出的宝贵意见，向 A. A. 利伊瓦和 T. S. 林内提供的野外工作方法指导及样本放射性碳测年工作，以及向吉尔吉斯地理学会主席 S. U. 乌穆尔扎科夫在撰写专著过程中给予的善意批评和一系列重要意见，表示深切的谢意。
", "ds_source": "作者（编委会）：Д. В. 谢瓦斯季亚诺夫（Д. В. Севастьянов）, Н. П. 斯米尔诺娃 (Н. П. Смирнова)\n出版社：Издательство «Наука»\n出版地：列宁格勒\n出版年：1986年\n页数：254页 \n语种：俄文\n分类号：УДК 551.481.1 \n馆藏条形码：XJLAS RU 70001996
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", "ds_acq_start_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_end_time": "2025-09-30 00:00:00", "ds_acq_place": "苏联", "ds_acq_lon_east": null, "ds_acq_lat_south": null, "ds_acq_lon_west": null, "ds_acq_lat_north": null, "ds_acq_alt_low": null, "ds_acq_alt_high": null, "ds_share_type": "apply-access", "ds_total_size": 113966820, "ds_files_count": 1, "ds_format": "PDF格式", "ds_space_res": "无", "ds_time_res": "无", "ds_coordinate": "无", "ds_projection": "", "ds_thumbnail": "2bb20fb9-7b90-4a46-abac-7dcc40b03bc1.png", "ds_thumb_from": 0, "ds_ref_way": "", "paper_ref_way": "", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_from_station": null, "organization_id": "a5877b42-96ea-4f13-af7e-246f355413d6", "doi_value": "", "subject_codes": [ "170.45" ], "quality_level": 1, "publish_time": "2026-09-10 16:59:55", "first_publish_time": null, "last_updated": "2026-09-22 19:59:37", "protected": false, "protected_to": null, "lang": "zh", "cstr": "33110.11.ariddc.02195", "license": null, "extra": null, "files_shape": [ { "name": "202507080001（XJLASRU70001996）双层.pdf", "size": 113966820, "is_dir": false } ], "features": null, "data_level": 0, "i18n": { "en": { "title": "Lake Issyk and its natural development trend", "ds_abstract": "The monograph Issyk-Kul and the Trends of Its Natural Evolution is dedicated to the memory of Professor Arseny Vladimirovich Shnitnikov, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, a distinguished geographer renowned for his studies of limnology and the rhythmicity of natural processes, who made a major contribution to the investigation of the natural environment of Lake Issyk-Kul.\r\n\r\nThis book presents the results of research carried out by a group of scientists from the Institute of Limnology of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR under the direction of A. V. Shnitnikov. Their work in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains was aimed at identifying the principal trends in the contemporary natural development of Lake Issyk-Kul and other high-mountain lakes.\r\n\r\nIn recent years, the continued decline of Lake Issyk-Kul's water level has given rise to extensive discussion concerning the causes of this phenomenon and the possibility of regulating the desiccation processes within the Issyk-Kul Basin. The economic development of the basin, the growth of recreation and tourism, and the increasing population of the Issyk-Kul region all underscore the need to study the area's water resources and their future prospects.\r\n\r\nParticularly important is the clarification of the relative contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors to the overall decline in lake level. An accurate assessment of this relationship largely determines the planning and development of water-management measures within the basin and ultimately affects the efficiency of investments. Consequently, identifying the principal natural factors influencing the water balance of Lake Issyk-Kul and determining the pattern of its level fluctuations constitutes one of the most important tasks of modern research. Its solution will help establish the most rational approaches to regulating the lake's hydrological regime.\r\n\r\nAt present, four principal hypotheses are used to explain the modern trend of changes in the water level of Lake Issyk-Kul: the existence of significant underground outflow from the lake; the separation of the Chu River, which formerly flowed into the lake; increased withdrawals of river water within the basin for agricultural irrigation; and the influence of climatic change.\r\n\r\nEach of these hypotheses, considered individually, is capable of satisfactorily explaining the long-term persistence of the lake's negative water balance, a phenomenon observed throughout the present century. The question therefore remains: what is the decisive factor governing the pattern of lake-level variation?\r\n\r\nTo date, the problem remains unresolved due to an insufficient understanding of the laws governing the natural evolution of the Tien Shan. Research on the characteristics of moisture circulation within the lake basin is still extremely limited, making it impossible to determine the quantity of water vapor carried out of the Issyk-Kul Basin by air currents or to evaluate the contribution of evaporation from the lake surface and irrigated lands to the overall water balance.\r\n\r\nExisting views concerning underground outflow from the lake vary widely, ranging from a complete denial of its existence to the assertion that it is the principal cause of the negative water balance. It can be stated with confidence that, at the current stage of research, this problem cannot yet be conclusively resolved. Nevertheless, on the basis of available hydrochemical studies, it is possible to conclude with reasonable certainty that no subsurface flow from Lake Issyk-Kul to the Chu River exists in the Boom Gorge region.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt that the Chu River flowed into the lake in the past. This is evidenced by a deep submerged valley extending eastward through Rybachy Bay of Lake Issyk-Kul. The \"separation\" of the river from the lake due to tectonic or hydrodynamic causes may have occurred only once. Its consequence should have been a single major decline in lake level throughout the lake's history. However, historical and archaeological evidence indicates that during the past several thousand years the lake level has repeatedly undergone substantial rises and falls relative to its present position.\r\n\r\nAs for the large-scale diversion of basin rivers for irrigation, its impact has been considered significant only since the second half of the twentieth century, whereas the directed decline of Lake Issyk-Kul began approximately 150 years ago. This change in lake-level position is therefore most plausibly explained from a climatic perspective.\r\n\r\nThe authors further develop A. V. Shnitnikov's concept concerning the role of climate change in determining the condition of lakes. They analyze observational data on the current state of the natural components of the Issyk-Kul Basin and their changes through time. Particular attention is paid to identifying cycles of different durations and long-term trends in climatic elements, basin humidity conditions, groundwater regimes, and fluctuations in Lake Issyk-Kul water level.\r\n\r\nAn important section of the monograph is devoted to the study of the components of the lake's water and heat balance, the use of water for irrigated agriculture within the basin, and the magnitude of its influence on lake-level fluctuations.\r\n\r\nHowever, it would be methodologically incorrect to study and analyze trends in the development of natural conditions within the lake basin solely on the basis of a short period of instrumental observations, without considering historical changes in lake level, the condition of other water bodies in the region, and broader humid-climatic cycles.\r\n\r\nFor this reason, the authors attach great importance to retrospective analyses of the dynamics of natural processes within the basin, comparing historical and archaeological information with geomorphological, palynological, biogeochemical, and other evidence concerning changes in the humid components of the Issyk-Kul Basin during the Holocene.\r\n\r\nThe characteristics of the present condition and temporal changes of other high-mountain lakes in the Tien Shan and Pamir regions, considered in the monograph as indicators of climate change, contribute to the identification of general trends in the natural development of mountain environments.\r\n\r\nOverall, the natural evolutionary trends of Lake Issyk-Kul are examined within the broader context of the dynamic physical-geographical conditions of the vast region encompassing the mountain systems of Central Asia.\r\n\r\nThe research was carried out in close scientific cooperation with the Department of Geography of Leningrad State Zhdanov University, the Institute of Zoology and Botany of the Academy of Sciences of Estonia, and the Tien Shan High-Mountain Physical Geography Station of the Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyzstan.\r\n\r\nThe authors express their sincere gratitude to I. S. Copland-Dixon and E. V. Maksimov for their valuable comments on the manuscript; to A. A. Liiva and T. S. Linne for methodological guidance in fieldwork and assistance with radiocarbon dating of samples; and to S. U. Umurzakov, Chairman of the Kyrgyz Geographical Society, for his constructive criticism and numerous important suggestions during the preparation of the monograph.", "ds_source": "Author (Editorial Board): п.В. Sevastyanov (п.В.Севастьянов）, Н.П. Smirnova (Un.П.Смирнова)\r\nPublished by: 丨 зда тельство « 丨 аука»\r\nPlace of publication: Leningrad\r\nPublication year: 1986\r\nPages: 254 pages \r\nLanguage: Russian\r\nClassification No.: У п б 551.481.1 \r\nCollection barcode: XJLAS RU 70001996", "ds_process_way": "This book is the collection of the Documentation and Information Center of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, China Academy of Sciences (hereinafter referred to as the Center). The center has stored the book electronically and has been recognized by OCR. The data processing process is in accordance with the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Specifications for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources\", and fully complies with the data information of \"Issyk Lake and its Natural Development Trends\" without modification or deletion.", "ds_quality": "The collected \"Issyk Lake and its Natural Development Trends\" were processed electronically. In accordance with the requirements of the national standard \"GB/T 31219.2-2014 Code for Digital Processing of Library Collection Resources\",\"Issyk Lake and Its Natural Development Trends\" were unchanged and deleted. The data information of \"Issyk Lake and its Natural Development Trends\" is of reliable quality.", "ds_acq_place": "Soviet Union", "ds_ref_instruction": "", "ds_ref_way": "", "ds_format": "PDF format", "ds_projection": "", "ds_space_res": "", "ds_time_res": "" } }, "license_type": null, "doi_reg_from": "reg_local", "cstr_reg_from": "reg_local", "doi_not_reg_reason": null, "cstr_not_reg_reason": null, "is_paper_in_submitting": false, "ds_topic_tags": [ "高山湖泊演化", "伊塞克湖水位变化" ], "ds_subject_tags": [ "地理学" ], "ds_class_tags": [], "ds_locus_tags": [ "苏联" ], "ds_time_tags": [ 1986 ], "ds_contributors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_meta_authors": [ "文献信息中心" ], "ds_managers": [ "文献信息中心" ], "category": "图书" }